Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Al Qaeda's Loss is America's Warning

Plenty of people in the intelligence community do not agree with actions taken, but in the end, they do not get the final say

I'm not in the intelligence community, but I've said from the beginning that Iraq was the "flypaper" to concentrate and destroy Al-Qaeda: Zawahiri & Co. couldn't let a genuine Arab democracy be established unchallenged. It has been a cruel time for the Iraqis, but we rid them of Saddam and in return and they are in the process of becoming a "normal" country.

However, now that Al-Qaida in Iraq is being exposed and obliterated, it is logical that the remnants of Al Qaida will turn their attentions elsewhere. I had thought that target would be Pakistan, but I now think the Taliban want it for themselves, and will ensure that Al-Q's influence in their struggle be limited to a supporting role.

That leaves the West as Al-Qaida's primary target once more. I expect that the redeployment of operatives and the activation of sleeper cells will start soon, if it hasn't already. We also see just how well six years of counter-terror preparation has served to boost the security of Western countries by measuring the outcome of terrorist operations like the failed attack in Britain earlier this month.

In short, we're probably ready for Al-Qaida's return, but it doesn't look like they are ready for us.

Hizbollah in America, however, is another can of worms. As the undercover terrorist arm of Iran's mullahs, they will only undertake operations directed by their head. "Inside the Beltway" their primary activity is undoubtedly intelligence gathering; that's why it seems quiet here.

Ultimately, I doubt Hizbollah's intentions in the U.S. are anything close to benign. Doubtless preparations have been made to respond to the Hizbollah military threat, but they will live or die independently of Al-Qaida, unless the mullahs dictate otherwise.

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